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Las Vegas, Nevada
Level Contributor
107 posts
175 reviews

Wanted to ask a question of locals about the weather. Have a trip planned for next week and most activities planned involve the outdoors. In light of the rain/flooding, what would you suggest. Reschedule for another time or go ahead with plans? Also wanted to drive through the Hill Country and spend two days in Fredericksburg, ending up in San Antonio.

1 reply
Lockhart, Texas
Destination Expert
for Austin
Level Contributor
2,437 posts
17 reviews
1. Re: Weather

Weather in Texas is always a guess this time of year. The systems are always complicated. Right now, the consensus is that there may be light rain or drizzle in the first half of next week. Looking at the map, that's probably right. I come ahead, if you don't mind wearing light rain gear. Flooding should not be a problem in Austin. It is definitely an issue in the north part of the Hill Country, near Llano and down the chain of lakes to north of Austin. And to a lesser degree around Fredericksburg, but that's mostly low-water crossing on minor roads.

But you can get an idea of how complicated it is from the following, which is the current forecast discussion by the NWS analyst for this area.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...

The longterm forecast is a mixed bag of good news and bad news. The

good news is that on Saturday a large trough will dig out of Canada

across the eastern half of the U.S. and drag a cold front through

Texas. While this will act as a focus for more rain during the day on

Saturday the front should clear out precipitation for Saturday night

through Sunday night, other than some isolated showers across the Rio

Grande Plains. This should give a good 24 hours for water to work

through area rivers, with no additional rainfall. The front will also

help to knock down temperatures that will have rebounded to afternoon

highs near 70 by Saturday (still below normal), back down into the

lower 60s. A lucky few may see some peaks of sun on Sunday though

mostly cloudy skies should prevail.

Now the bad news...there is more rain in the forecast for the first

half of next week. Both the ECMWF and GFS show the persistent upper

level low pressure system that has been sitting across the Southwest

U.S. finally ejected eastward across the Southern Plains. This in

itself will provide a catalyst for another round of potentially heavy

rainfall beginning on Monday and lasting through Wednesday night.

What bares watching is the possibility than a Pacific tropical system

gets pulled into the through as it traverses across Texas. This

system has yet to form, but is shown in both the ECMWF and GFS and

NHC currently has a 90% chance of formation along the southern

Mexican coast. The GFS has the trough picking up the tropical system

Wednesday into Thursday producing widespread heavy rainfall across

much of Texas. The ECMWF is faster with the main trough pulling it

through Texas as tropical system makes landfall. The difference here

will be the amount of moisture the trough has to work with. With all

of the Pacific moisture the GFS dumps 5-10 inches from San Angelo to

Abilene, while the ECMWF with the miss-match of trough first, then

tropical system shows only 2-4 inches. There are a lot of factors

that will come into play next week from the timing of the trough

moving eastward, to the location, strength, and timing of the yet-to-

form Pacific Tropical System, and how much the area gets to dry out

this weekend. How these come together will determine how much and

where the rain falls during the first half of next week and what

additional impacts will be felt across South Central Texas.

Probably the *best* news is that both long-term global models show

ridging trying to work into Texas behind the trough and a drier

forecast beginning Thursday of next week.

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